Wet Week Ahead: Showers, Thunderstorms, and Fog Return
Central New York is stepping into a stretch of unsettled weather, with increasing clouds today, several rounds of showers, a thunderstorm risk by Thursday, and fog returning late in the week. It will not rain the entire time, but the pattern favors damp mornings, cloudy skies, and a weekend that looks increasingly wet.
Temperatures stay fairly mild for much of the forecast, with highs mostly in the low to upper 70s before a cooler feel settles in by Friday night and into Monday. For Madison County and nearby parts of Central New York, the biggest planning windows are Thursday, Saturday night, and Sunday, when rain chances climb the highest.
Clouds build today before rain chances return overnight
Today starts on the quieter side, but the sky will trend cloudier as the day goes on. The high should reach near 73 degrees, which is comfortable for midweek errands, school pickups, farm work, or time outside before wetter weather moves back in.
Winds stay light. A calm start gives way to a south wind around 5 to 7 mph by morning. That is not enough wind to cause problems, but it will help draw in moisture and set the stage for a cloudier night.
Tonight brings the first chance of showers, mainly after 4 a.m. The chance of precipitation is about 30%, so not everyone will see rain. Still, it is the kind of setup where a dry evening can turn damp before the morning commute.
Expect a mostly cloudy night with a low near 58 degrees. East winds around 5 to 7 mph will keep the air feeling mild and a little damp.
For planning, today is the better day to handle outdoor chores that do not need a soaking. Mowing, covering materials, clearing storm drains, or checking gutters are all easier before the pattern gets wetter.
Wednesday stays mostly cloudy with a few early showers
Wednesday brings a chance of showers before 10 a.m., followed by a mostly cloudy day. The rain chance remains around 30%, and new rainfall amounts should stay light, generally less than a tenth of an inch where showers occur.
The high climbs near 77 degrees, making Wednesday one of the warmer days in the forecast. Winds should be light and variable, so the day will likely feel humid or still at times, especially under low clouds.
The main takeaway for Wednesday is that the morning may be damp, but the day does not look like a washout. A few showers could slow the start of the day, then clouds hang on.
Wednesday night brings another chance of showers after 2 a.m. The low settles near 60 degrees, with calm wind and mostly cloudy skies. Rainfall amounts again look light, with less than a tenth of an inch possible.
That repeating overnight shower pattern matters. Even when daytime rain is limited, wet pavement can develop before sunrise. Low spots, shaded roads, and rural routes can stay damp longer, especially where leaves begin collecting near the shoulders.
Period | Main weather | High or low | Rain chance |
Today | Increasing clouds | High near 73 | Low |
Tonight | Mostly cloudy, late showers possible | Low near 58 | 30% |
Wednesday | Early showers possible, mostly cloudy | High near 77 | 30% |
Wednesday night | Late showers possible | Low near 60 | 30% |
Thursday is the stormiest day of the workweek
Thursday stands out as the most active day before the weekend. Showers are likely, and thunderstorms are possible after 2 p.m. The forecast calls for a 70% chance of precipitation, with a high near 78 degrees.
That combination of mild temperatures, moisture, and cloudy skies points to an unsettled afternoon. Thunderstorms do not look guaranteed for every location, but any storm that forms could bring brief heavier rain, rumbles of thunder, and reduced visibility.
Winds again look light and variable. That can make showers slow to move at times. In a setup like this, one area may get a quick downpour while another nearby location sees only a light shower.
Thursday night keeps rain in the forecast, though the chance drops to about 30%. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues before 8 p.m., then a chance of showers remains between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m.
After 2 a.m., patchy fog becomes possible. The low falls to around 58 degrees, and the sky stays mostly cloudy.
Watch for quick changes during the afternoon
Thursday will be a day to check the sky before heading out, especially during the afternoon and early evening. If thunder is heard, move inside. Lightning can reach beyond the heaviest rain, and a light shower can quickly turn into a storm.
The most likely impacts are practical ones:
Wet roads during the afternoon and evening drive
Puddles in poor drainage spots
Brief downpours under heavier showers
Reduced visibility in rain
Thunderstorm delays for outdoor plans
The rain chance is high enough that keeping a rain jacket or umbrella nearby makes sense. For school sports, outdoor work, harvest tasks, or evening plans, Thursday deserves the most attention this week.
Fog may slow the Friday morning start
Friday brings a welcome break after the wetter Thursday setup, but it may start with patchy fog before 7 a.m. Once that fog lifts, the day turns mostly sunny with a high near 73 degrees.
That is a notable change. After several cloudy and damp periods, Friday should feel brighter and more comfortable. It will not be hot, and it should be one of the better days for outdoor activities.
Friday night turns partly cloudy and cooler, with a low around 48 degrees. That will be the coolest night in the forecast period. The drop into the upper 40s may feel crisp, especially in valleys and open rural areas.
Fog is the main early concern. It tends to form in low-lying spots, near creeks, wet fields, and valleys. In Madison County, that can mean changing visibility from one stretch of road to the next.
If driving early Friday, allow extra space and use low beams if fog develops. High beams can reflect off moisture droplets and make visibility worse.
Friday looks like the best outdoor day
Friday is the cleaner window of the week. It should work well for yard cleanup, walking, sports practices, and anything that benefits from drier weather.
It is also a good day to prepare for the weekend, because rain chances return quickly after that. If gutters are already holding leaves or debris, clearing them Friday could help before heavier rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday.
Weekend rain chances increase fast
Saturday starts partly sunny, but the dry window may not last all day. A chance of showers arrives after 2 p.m., with a high near 71 degrees and a precipitation chance around 30%.
The larger change comes Saturday night. Showers become likely, mainly after 8 p.m., and the chance of precipitation jumps to 80%. The low should stay mild, around 56 degrees.
Sunday also looks wet, with showers likely and a high near 72 degrees. The chance of precipitation remains 80%, making Sunday one of the wetter days in the entire forecast.
Sunday night keeps a chance of showers in place. Skies remain mostly cloudy, the low drops near 52 degrees, and the rain chance lowers to 40%.
For weekend plans, Saturday morning and early afternoon look better than Saturday night or Sunday. If there is an outdoor event, yard project, market trip, or travel plan, earlier Saturday offers a better chance of avoiding steady rain.
By Saturday night, the forecast turns much wetter. Sunday plans should be built around showers rather than hoping they miss.
Weekend period | Best planning note |
Saturday morning | Better window for errands or outdoor chores |
Saturday afternoon | Showers become possible after 2 p.m. |
Saturday night | Showers likely, especially after 8 p.m. |
Sunday | Wettest part of the weekend with showers likely |
Sunday night | Showers remain possible, but chances ease |
Monday keeps the unsettled pattern going
The new week does not start completely dry. Monday brings a chance of showers, partly sunny skies, and a high near 69 degrees. The rain chance is about 30%.
That is not as wet as Sunday, but it keeps the pattern from fully clearing out. After a soggy weekend, even scattered showers can keep lawns, fields, and unpaved areas damp.
Monday will also feel a bit cooler. A high in the upper 60s is still mild, but it marks a step down from the upper 70s expected Wednesday and Thursday.
This kind of pattern is common when moisture lingers across the region and weak systems keep passing through. The result is a forecast with several rain chances, but not equal rain every day. Timing matters.
What this means for Central New York plans
This forecast has two main themes: mild air and repeated rain chances. The mild temperatures keep the week from feeling raw, but the frequent clouds and shower windows will make it feel damp at times.
The best outdoor windows look like:
Today before clouds fully thicken
Wednesday afternoon if early showers move out
Friday after morning fog lifts
Saturday morning into early afternoon
The wetter or more limited windows look like:
Late tonight into early Wednesday
Thursday afternoon and evening
Late Saturday night
Sunday
For commuters, the most likely slowdowns come from wet pavement, fog, and brief downpours. Thursday evening and Sunday deserve extra time on the road. Friday morning may also be tricky in fog-prone areas.
For homeowners, the forecast is a reminder to check drainage before the higher weekend rain chances arrive. Clear leaves from downspouts, move items away from low spots, and secure anything that should not sit in water.
For farmers and gardeners, Friday may be the most useful break between wet stretches. Soil conditions could stay damp after Thursday, then turn wetter again by Sunday.
The bottom line for the week ahead
The forecast points to a wet week ahead with several rounds of showers, a thunderstorm risk Thursday, patchy fog late Thursday night into Friday morning, and a wetter weekend setup.
Today and Friday offer the cleaner breaks. Thursday and Sunday look like the days most likely to disrupt outdoor plans. Saturday starts with some usable time, but showers become more likely later, especially Saturday night.
Keep rain gear nearby, watch for fog in the early morning, and plan outdoor work around the drier windows when they appear. The week will not be a nonstop washout, but Central New York is heading into a damp and changeable stretch.
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