Stormy Start, Cooler Finish: A Wet Week Ahead
A warm, unsettled afternoon will set the tone for a soggy stretch across Central New York, but the week will not stay mild for long. The pattern starts with showers and thunderstorms, briefly eases into a cooler gray midweek, then reloads with another round of widespread rain late Thursday into Friday.
The main story is simple: keep the rain gear close, watch for thunder this afternoon and tonight, and expect a sharper chill by the weekend. Temperatures will slide from the mid-70s today to the 40s by Saturday, with overnight lows near freezing in spots by Friday night and Saturday night.
Showers and thunderstorms take over this afternoon and tonight
This afternoon brings the most noticeable change in the short term. The day starts with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then rain becomes more likely as the afternoon goes on. After 4 p.m., showers are expected, and a thunderstorm is possible.
Temperatures will still feel mild, with a high near 76 degrees. That warmth matters because it helps support the chance for thunderstorms before cooler air moves in later.
Winds will not be especially strong. Expect a southwest wind around 7 mph. The bigger issue will be bursts of rain under heavier showers and any thunderstorms that develop.
Rainfall amounts should generally stay between one-tenth and one-quarter of an inch, but thunderstorms can produce higher totals in a short time. That means most areas may see a manageable soaking, while a few spots could briefly deal with ponding on roads, poor visibility, or heavier downpours.
Tonight stays active. Showers and thunderstorms are likely before 3 a.m., followed by only a slight chance of lingering showers between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. The low will settle around 59 degrees, which is still mild for an unsettled night.
The wind will start light and variable, then become west at 5 to 8 mph during the evening. That shift is a sign of the cooler air beginning to work in behind the rain.
For evening plans, the practical takeaway is clear:
Keep an umbrella or rain jacket nearby.
Avoid driving through water covering the road.
If thunder is close enough to hear, move indoors.
Give extra time for the evening commute if rain rates pick up.
This will not be a washout in the same way all day everywhere, but the chance of precipitation is high enough, around 80 percent, that planning around wet weather is the safer bet.
Wednesday brings clouds, a lower rain chance, and cooler air
Wednesday looks quieter, but not bright. A slight chance of showers remains between 9 a.m. and noon, then the rest of the day trends drier. The chance of precipitation drops to 20 percent, which means many places may only deal with clouds and a damp feel rather than steady rain.
The bigger change will be the temperature. Highs will only reach near 65 degrees, about 10 degrees cooler than today. A west wind at 8 to 11 mph will add to the cooler feel, especially in open areas and higher terrain.
This is the kind of day that can feel raw even without much rain. The sky stays cloudy, the ground may still be wet from earlier showers, and the breeze will remind you that the warm side of the system has moved out.
Wednesday night stays mostly cloudy at first, then gradually becomes partly cloudy. The low drops to around 42 degrees, with a west wind at 5 to 8 mph.
That overnight low is not cold enough for a widespread freeze, but it will feel noticeably different after a mild and stormy start to the week. Light jackets will be useful by evening, especially away from larger lakes and in valleys where cool air settles more easily.
Thursday starts calm before rain returns late
Thursday is the brief pause in the pattern. Skies should be partly sunny, with a high near 60 degrees. Winds will be calm, making the day feel more settled than Wednesday even with a cool air mass in place.
This is the best window for outdoor tasks before the next round of wet weather arrives. If gutters need clearing, outdoor furniture needs securing, or leaves need moving away from drains, Thursday daylight is the better opportunity.
The quiet stretch does not last long. Thursday night brings showers, mainly after 2 a.m. The chance of precipitation rises sharply to 90 percent, and the low stays around 46 degrees.
That late-night timing matters. Roads may be wet for the Friday morning commute, and rain could become steady enough to slow travel. Anyone heading out early Friday should plan for reduced visibility, wet pavement, and the possibility of heavier showers moving through.
The setup points toward a second, stronger wet period from late Thursday night through Friday. The atmosphere will have enough moisture and lift to support widespread rain, and the forecast even includes a thunderstorm chance on Friday.
Here is the day-by-day setup through the first half of the week:
Period | Main weather | High or low | Rain chance |
This afternoon | Showers and possible thunderstorms | High near 76 | 80% |
Tonight | Showers and thunderstorms, ending late | Low near 59 | 80% |
Wednesday | Cloudy, slight morning shower chance | High near 65 | 20% |
Wednesday night | Cloudy, then partly cloudy | Low near 42 | Not listed |
Thursday | Partly sunny and calmer | High near 60 | Not listed |
Thursday night | Showers mainly after 2 a.m. | Low near 46 | 90% |
The table shows the rhythm of the week well: wet and warm, then cooler and cloudy, then wet again.
Friday looks like the wettest day of the week
Friday is the day to watch most closely. The forecast calls for showers and possibly a thunderstorm, with a high near 63 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 100 percent, which signals strong confidence that rain will affect the area.
A 100 percent rain chance does not mean every minute will bring heavy rain. It means rain is expected to occur. There may still be breaks, lighter periods, or changes in intensity. Even so, Friday looks like a poor day for outdoor work, field activity, and long stretches of travel without rain.
Friday night stays wet, with showers likely and an 80 percent chance of precipitation. The low drops to around 32 degrees, which marks a much colder finish to the storm system.
That low near freezing stands out. It does not automatically mean icy roads everywhere, especially after daytime highs in the 60s. Ground temperatures, timing, elevation, and how quickly rain tapers will all matter. Still, a colder night after a soaking rain can create slick spots in the usual colder locations if temperatures fall fast enough.
This is also when higher terrain across Central New York can start to feel the chill first. Valleys may hold on to slightly different conditions than hilltops, and small changes in elevation can matter when temperatures hover near freezing.
For Friday, think in terms of preparation rather than panic:
Check sump pumps if your basement tends to take on water.
Clear leaves from driveway drains and roadside ditches where safe.
Charge devices before the wettest stretch.
Keep headlights on when driving in rain.
Slow down on wet roads, especially where leaves collect.
Wet leaves can be nearly as slippery as ice when they mat down on pavement. That is especially true on shaded rural roads, curves, and driveways lined by trees.
Saturday turns chilly before a brighter Sunday and Monday
The rain should not carry through the whole weekend. Saturday starts with showers likely before 8 a.m., then conditions improve. The sky becomes partly sunny, but temperatures struggle. The high will only reach near 44 degrees, and the chance of precipitation early in the day is 60 percent.
That is a sharp drop from today’s high near 76. Even if the sun returns at times, Saturday will feel much colder, especially in the morning.
Saturday night becomes partly cloudy, with a low around 31 degrees. That is the coldest point in the forecast. Sensitive plants, late-season gardens, and outdoor water items may need attention, especially in colder pockets.
If skies clear enough and winds ease, temperatures can fall efficiently after sunset. It is a good idea to bring in potted plants, disconnect hoses where needed, and make sure pets have a warm place away from the cold.
Sunday brings the rebound. Sunshine returns, with a high near 57 degrees. Sunday night looks mostly clear, with a low around 37 degrees.
Monday continues the improvement, turning mostly sunny with a high near 63 degrees. That makes the early part of next week look much more comfortable after the wet and chilly finish.
Here is the weekend and early next week at a glance:
Period | Main weather | High or low | What to expect |
Friday | Showers and possible thunderstorm | High near 63 | Wettest day of the week |
Friday night | Showers | Low near 32 | Much colder late |
Saturday | Early showers, then partly sunny | High near 44 | Chilly and improving |
Saturday night | Partly cloudy | Low near 31 | Near-freezing cold |
Sunday | Sunny | High near 57 | Brighter and calmer |
Sunday night | Mostly clear | Low near 37 | Cool but less harsh |
Monday | Mostly sunny | High near 63 | Milder recovery |
The weekend pattern is encouraging, but it comes with a cold reminder. The growing season may be winding down quickly in colder sections of the region.
What this pattern means for Central New York
This forecast has two clear weather stories. The first is the wet pattern, with rain and thunderstorms today, tonight, late Thursday night, and Friday. The second is the temperature swing, with readings falling from the 70s to the 40s in just a few days.
That kind of change is common in Central New York during the transition seasons. Mild air can surge in ahead of a system, then cooler air arrives behind it once the front passes. The result is a week that feels split between late-season warmth and a preview of colder weather.
For Madison County and nearby parts of Central New York, the details will vary by location. Higher elevations may feel cooler sooner. Low-lying areas may hold fog or damp air longer after rain. Areas near open fields may notice the wind more on Wednesday.
The rain itself should be watched in waves:
This afternoon and tonight
Thunderstorms are possible, with heavier downpours in spots.
Late Thursday night into Friday
More widespread showers arrive, with Friday looking especially wet.
Early Saturday
Showers may linger before drier air takes over.
The most useful approach is to plan around the wetter windows rather than focus on any single number. Rainfall amounts can vary widely when thunderstorms are involved. A nearby town may see a brief heavy burst while another area gets lighter rain.
A practical plan for the days ahead
The best way through this week is to use the quieter windows well. Today and tonight are wet and stormy. Wednesday is cooler and cloudy, with only a small morning rain chance. Thursday daytime looks like the best break before the next system arrives.
If you have outdoor chores, Thursday is the target. If you have travel flexibility, Friday looks like the day most likely to make roads messy. If you still have plants outside, Saturday night’s low near 31 deserves attention.
The short version:
Today and tonight Expect showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavier rain possible.
Wednesday Plan for clouds, cooler air, and a slight morning shower chance.
Thursday Use the calmer daylight hours before showers return late.
Friday Prepare for widespread rain and a possible thunderstorm.
Saturday Watch for early showers, then a chilly and partly sunny day.
Sunday and Monday Expect a brighter, milder turn.
The week begins stormy, ends cooler, and then finally settles down. Keep the umbrella handy now, have the jacket ready by midweek, and do not be surprised when the weekend feels like a different season.
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