Mild Week Ahead: Sunshine, Fog, and Weekend Storm Chances
Central New York is heading into a mild stretch of weather, with cool nights, sunny afternoons, early fog, and a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms by the end of the weekend. The forecast for the Canastota area points to a mainly dry finish to the workweek before storm chances increase Sunday into Sunday night.
Mild and partly cloudy tonight
Tonight will stay quiet across the region. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy, with a low near 58 degrees. Winds will be light and variable, which often helps temperatures settle smoothly after sunset.
The combination of light wind and leftover low-level moisture will set up the first fog concern of the forecast period by early Wednesday. The fog is not expected to last long, but it could briefly affect visibility during the early morning commute, especially in low-lying areas, near open fields, and close to waterways.
Wednesday brings fog early, then sunshine
Wednesday starts with patchy fog before 7 a.m. Once that lifts, the day turns sunny and comfortable. High temperatures should reach near 75 degrees.
Winds will start calm, then become west around 6 mph during the afternoon. That light breeze should not create any major issues for outdoor plans.
For most of Wednesday, conditions look favorable for:
Yard work
Walking and biking
Outdoor lunch breaks
Local travel
Late-summer errands and appointments
The next weather change arrives Wednesday night, when scattered showers and thunderstorms become possible.
Shower and thunderstorm chance arrives Wednesday night
Wednesday night has the first notable rain chance of the period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible before 2 a.m., followed by a slight chance of showers between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m.
The chance of precipitation is 40 percent. Most rainfall totals should stay under one-tenth of an inch, though thunderstorms could produce locally higher amounts.
The risk does not look like an all-night washout based on the current forecast, but any storm that develops could briefly bring heavier rain, rumbles of thunder, and wet roads.
Patchy fog may return after 4 a.m. Thursday as winds remain calm and moisture lingers near the surface.
Thursday stays warm with a small shower risk
Thursday begins with patchy fog before 8 a.m., then turns mostly sunny. Temperatures will climb higher than Wednesday, with an afternoon high near 79 degrees.
A slight chance of showers remains in the forecast, with a 20 percent precipitation chance. Winds will again be light early, then become west at 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday night will be partly cloudy, with a slight chance of showers before 2 a.m. The low should fall near 56 degrees. The precipitation chance remains 20 percent.
Period | Forecast | High or low | Rain chance |
Tonight | Partly cloudy | Low near 58 | Low |
Wednesday | Early fog, then sunny | High near 75 | Low |
Wednesday night | Chance of showers and storms, late fog | Low near 59 | 40% |
Thursday | Early fog, mostly sunny | High near 79 | 20% |
Thursday night | Partly cloudy, slight shower chance | Low near 56 | 20% |
Friday | Sunny | High near 75 | Low |
Saturday | Sunny | High near 75 | Low |
Sunday | Partly sunny, chance of storms | High near 79 | 40% |
Sunday night | Showers and storms likely | Low near 60 | 60% |
Monday | Partly sunny, chance of showers | High near 78 | 30% |
Friday and Saturday look like the steadiest dry stretch
Friday and Saturday stand out as the most dependable outdoor days in the forecast.
Friday will be sunny, with a high near 75 degrees. Friday night turns mostly clear and cooler, with a low near 51. Saturday follows with more sunshine and another high near 75.
Saturday night will be partly cloudy, with a low near 52.
That stretch should feel seasonable and comfortable for Central New York. It also brings the clearest window for outdoor work, sports, travel, and events before unsettled weather returns Sunday.
Storm chances increase Sunday into Sunday night
The weekend starts dry, but it may not end that way.
Sunday brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms under partly sunny skies. The high will be near 79 degrees, and the chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
Sunday night looks more unsettled. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, with mostly cloudy skies and a low near 60. The chance of precipitation rises to 60 percent.
At this range, the exact timing of storms remains less certain. Still, Sunday night currently carries the highest rain chance in the forecast. Anyone with evening plans should keep an eye on later updates, especially for outdoor gatherings, sports, or travel.
Monday keeps a shower chance in place
The unsettled pattern may linger into Monday. A chance of showers remains in the forecast, with partly sunny skies and a high near 78 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Monday does not currently look as wet as Sunday night, but the forecast still supports carrying rain gear or leaving some flexibility in outdoor plans.
What this means for Central New York
The main weather story is a mild week with limited rain chances until late Sunday. Fog will be the main early-day issue Wednesday and Thursday, while thunderstorms become the main concern Wednesday night and again Sunday into Sunday night.
Best dry-weather window
Friday through Saturday looks most favorable.
Warmest afternoons
Thursday, Sunday, and Monday all reach the upper 70s.
Highest rain chance
Sunday night carries the best chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Fog concerns
Early Wednesday and early Thursday may bring reduced visibility in spots.
The week ahead offers more usable weather than wet weather for Central New York, especially Friday and Saturday. The main times to watch are early-morning fog Wednesday and Thursday, the shower and thunderstorm chance Wednesday night, and the stronger signal for rain Sunday night into Monday.
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