...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains.
I see that you are looking for information about severe storms in Madison County, NY. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), there is a possibility of severe thunderstorms with isolated tornadoes and large hail as well as winds gusting between 60 to 70 mph in the Northeast region of the United States including Madison County, NY1.
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Discussion:
ACUS02 KWNS 011728 SWODY2 SPC AC 011726 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Compared to previous days, relatively limited morning convection is currently anticipated across the southern High Plains on Friday. This will allow for diurnal heating of a moist environment, with 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching as far west as extreme southeast NM. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico during the morning and into parts of the southern Rockies/High Plains during the afternoon, which would be favorably timed for scattered thunderstorm development within an unstable and favorably sheared environment. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) will support a conditionally favorable environment for very large hail. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected over portions of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin, in association with a moderate subtropical jet, and a few intense supercells will be possible in this region, with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. Low-level shear/SRH is expected to remain relatively modest, but will be sufficient to support a threat of a couple of tornadoes as well. An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) has been added where the greatest risk of supercells producing very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) is currently anticipated. Severe storms will also be possible farther north into parts of the TX Panhandle, though weaker deep-layer shear may result in a mix of convective modes. Some upscale growth is possible with time as storms move eastward toward the TX Big Country region, which could increase the threat of severe gusts, though weaker shear with eastward extent may tend to limit the organization of any outflow-driven clusters into Friday evening. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong storms will be possible into parts of the central High Plains Friday afternoon/evening, along the northern fringe of somewhat stronger midlevel flow/deep-layer shear associated with a gradually weakening upper-level trough. A few organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two are possible, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally strong/severe gusts. ...Northeast... Weak deep-layer northerly flow will persist across the region on the eastern periphery of a Great Lakes upper anticyclone. Some modest midlevel cooling and weak ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough from Quebec, in combination with relatively favorable moisture/instability, will support isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain very weak, limiting longevity and organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support a few strong gusts and small hail in stronger cells. ..Dean.. 06/01/2023 $$
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