SPC AC Day 1 convective outlook Afternoon evening

SPC AC 011628 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST NV INTO EASTERN OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts may affect parts of a corridor from northwestern Nevada to eastern Oregon, late this afternoon into evening. ...Northwest NV into eastern OR this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over northern CA will pivot northward over northwest NV/southern OR, around the eastern periphery of a deepening midlevel low just off the OR/northern CA coasts. Low-level moisture is limited across the Great Basin with dewpoints mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s F. However, surface heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates/inverted-v profiles with weak buoyancy, which will favor high-based storms in a loose arc later this afternoon. Some storm-scale organization will be possible in an environment of deep-layer, south-southeasterly shear, and the strongest storms may produce strong/isolated severe outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from northwest NV into eastern OR. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon across parts of NY/PA where modest surface heating occurs in cloud breaks, beneath cold midlevel temperatures. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with weak diurnal convection across parts of the central/northern Rockies, in the vicinity of a mean northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone. ..Thompson/Bentley.. 05/01/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1714Z (1:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME