Showers and Thunderstorms Kick Off the Week, Then a Brief Midweek Warm-Up

A wet start is taking shape across Central New York, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight, Sunday, and again Monday before the pattern eases for a short midweek break. The forecast points to several chances for rain rather than one long, steady soak, so the timing matters for outdoor plans, yard work, travel, and the school or workweek routine.

The main idea is simple: keep rain gear close through Tuesday, enjoy the brighter and warmer window around Wednesday, then watch for another round of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday.

For the Canastota area and nearby parts of Central New York, temperatures stay fairly mild through the stretch. Overnight lows generally sit in the 50s and lower 60s, while daytime highs climb from the low to upper 70s early in the week, then briefly reach the lower to mid-80s by Thursday.

A damp start to the forecast period brings showers and a few thunderstorms.

Rain chances build tonight and peak on Sunday

Tonight brings the first more organized push of unsettled weather. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected early, then showers become more likely after 3 a.m., with a thunderstorm possible. Skies stay mostly cloudy, and the low settles around 63 degrees.

The wind will not be a major headline, with a southeast breeze around 7 mph. Still, any thunderstorm can briefly make conditions more active, especially with heavier rain in a short period.

Rainfall tonight is expected to land mostly between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. The exception will be under thunderstorms, where higher amounts are possible. That is a common setup in summerlike patterns across Central New York. One neighborhood may get a quick downpour while another picks up lighter rain.

Sunday looks like the wettest part of the weekend forecast. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected, mainly before 11 a.m. After that, the day trends toward a chance of showers and thunderstorms rather than steady rain everywhere.

The chance of precipitation Sunday is 80 percent, so planning around wet weather is the better bet. The high reaches near 78, which keeps the air mild and somewhat humid. A southeast wind around 8 mph will become west in the afternoon as the system shifts through.

Expected new rainfall Sunday ranges from a quarter to a half inch. Again, a thunderstorm could produce locally higher totals.

For practical planning, Sunday morning is the period most likely to interrupt outdoor activities. If there is a flexible window for errands, field work, mowing, or walking the dog, the afternoon may offer breaks, but it will not be fully dry for everyone.

Best approach for Sunday plans

• Keep an umbrella or rain jacket nearby, even during breaks in the rain.

• Watch for ponding on roads during heavier showers.

• Move outdoor cushions, tools, and sports gear under cover before the overnight rain arrives.

• If thunder is heard, head indoors and wait until the storm has passed.

  
  

Thunderstorms do not need to be severe to be dangerous. Lightning can strike well away from the heaviest rain, so it is better to pause outdoor plans early than wait for rain to become intense.

Mild overnight temperatures will pair with periods of rain and thunder.

Monday keeps the unsettled pattern going

Sunday night offers a partial break, but not a clean end to the wet pattern. Isolated showers are possible before midnight, then isolated showers may return after 5 a.m. Otherwise, the night stays mostly cloudy with a low around 53. Winds turn lighter, from the southwest at 3 to 6 mph.

That lower overnight temperature will feel noticeably cooler than tonight, especially where rain and clouds linger.

Monday brings another round of showers. The day starts with scattered showers, then showers become likely after 2 p.m., with a thunderstorm possible. The high reaches near 73, making Monday cooler than Sunday. A west wind between 5 and 9 mph adds to the cooler feel, though it remains a mild spring or early warm-season type of day.

The chance of precipitation Monday is 70 percent. That means many areas should plan for rain at some point, especially later in the day. The afternoon timing matters for school pickups, evening commutes, outdoor practices, and any work that depends on dry ground.

Monday night keeps showers likely, mainly before 8 p.m. The chance of precipitation is 60 percent, and the low again sits around 53. The early evening may still be damp, but conditions should gradually become less active overnight.

The Sunday and Monday pattern is not unusual for Central New York. Weather systems often move through in waves, and the clouds can hold longer than the rain itself. That is why the sky may look threatening even when radar shows only scattered showers nearby.

Here is the broad timing through Monday night:

Period	Main weather	Temperature	Rain chance
Tonight	Showers likely late, thunder possible	Low near 63	60%
Sunday	Showers and thunderstorms, especially before 11 a.m.	High near 78	80%
Sunday night	Isolated showers	Low near 53	20%
Monday	Showers likely late, thunder possible after 2 p.m.	High near 73	70%
Monday night	Showers likely early	Low near 53	60%

By the time Monday night ends, many areas will have had multiple chances for rain. The totals will vary, especially where thunderstorms pass through. Low spots, poor drainage areas, and recently saturated lawns may stay soggy longer than the paved surfaces.

Showers may come and go, with cloudy breaks between rounds of rain.

Tuesday starts the transition toward a brighter middle of the week

Tuesday still carries a chance of showers, but the forecast starts to loosen up compared with Sunday and Monday. Skies turn partly sunny, and the high reaches near 75. The chance of precipitation is 50 percent.

That means Tuesday is not fully dry, but it should feel less locked into the wet pattern. Some spots may see showers, while others may get longer dry periods. The partly sunny description matters too. More breaks in the cloud cover can help roads and patios dry out, even if the ground remains damp.

Tuesday night looks quieter. Skies become partly cloudy, and the low settles around 54. This is the first nighttime period in the forecast without a notable rain chance listed, which points to a more comfortable and calmer stretch.

Wednesday is the standout day if the goal is dry weather. Mostly sunny skies are expected, with a high near 80. After several days of rain chances, Wednesday should feel like a clear improvement. It will also bring a warm-up, though not an extreme one.

Wednesday night stays partly cloudy with a low around 58. That sets up an even warmer Thursday, but it also comes ahead of the next unsettled period.

For outdoor planning, Wednesday looks like the best day of the week. It is the better option for:

• Mowing, if the lawn has had enough time to dry

• Outdoor sports and practices

• Travel across Central New York

• Patio dining or grilling

• Garden work that needs sunshine rather than wet soil

  
  

One caution for yard work: even with sun and a high near 80, the ground may still be soft after the earlier rain. Heavy equipment, repeated foot traffic, or mowing low areas too soon may leave ruts or tear up the lawn. Waiting until the surface firms up can save work later.

The midweek warm-up will be brief. Wednesday brings the more settled weather, and Thursday brings the highest temperature in the forecast, near 84. But rain chances return later Thursday and grow Thursday night.

Thursday turns warmer before showers return

Thursday starts on the warmer side, with a high near 84 under partly sunny skies. That will likely feel like the warmest part of the stretch, especially compared with Monday’s cooler high near 73.

The warmth comes with a tradeoff. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday, with a 50 percent chance of precipitation. This does not mean the whole day will be wet, but it does mean the atmosphere becomes more active again.

Thursday night is the next period to watch. Showers and thunderstorms become likely, skies turn mostly cloudy, and the low only drops to around 62. The chance of precipitation rises to 70 percent. A mild night with higher rain chances often points to a more humid feel, even if the forecast does not list exact humidity values.

Friday keeps showers likely and stays partly sunny, with a high near 81. The chance of precipitation remains 70 percent. That makes the end of the week unsettled again, though still warm.

The late-week pattern looks different from the start of the forecast in one key way. Early in the week, temperatures hover in the 70s with clouds and showers. Late in the week, temperatures climb into the 80s, then showers and thunderstorms return. Warmer air can make thunderstorms feel more noticeable, with heavier bursts of rain possible in any stronger cell.

That does not mean severe weather is guaranteed. The provided forecast only points to chances for showers and thunderstorms. Still, it is a good idea to keep checking updates as Thursday gets closer, especially for evening events, travel, or outdoor work.

A brief warm-up arrives before rain chances return late Thursday.

What this forecast means for the week ahead

The week has three clear chapters.

The first chapter runs from tonight through Monday night. This is the wettest and most unsettled stretch, with showers likely at times and several chances for thunderstorms. Sunday morning and Monday afternoon stand out as periods where rain could affect plans.

The second chapter arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday still has a shower chance, but the pattern begins to improve. Wednesday looks mostly sunny and warmer, with a high near 80. If one day needs to be picked for outdoor work or travel with the lowest weather concerns, Wednesday is the best choice in this forecast.

The third chapter begins Thursday and lasts into Friday. Temperatures rise, with Thursday near 84 and Friday near 81, but showers and thunderstorms return. Thursday night and Friday carry the higher rain chances.

A simple way to plan the week is to match tasks to the weather window:

Task or plan	Better timing	Reason
Outdoor errands	Wednesday	Mostly sunny and near 80
Yard cleanup	Wednesday or early Thursday	Drier break after early-week showers
Longer drives	Wednesday	Lower rain chance and better visibility
Flexible outdoor events	Wednesday, then monitor Thursday	Storm chances return later in the week
Rain-sensitive work	Avoid Sunday morning and Monday afternoon if possible	Higher rain chances during those periods

Central New York weather can shift quickly, especially with showers and thunderstorms. The forecast gives the best general timing, but radar and short-term updates become more useful once rain is nearby.

For now, the takeaway is clear: plan for a damp start, use the midweek break well, and keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday. The week will not be a washout from start to finish, but the dry windows will matter. Wednesday is the standout, and the warm-up will be brief before showers return.