SPC AC 061605
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Sat May 06 2023
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
...SUMMARY...
Intense severe thunderstorm development is likely during the late
afternoon and evening across a portion of the southern Great Plains.
Very large hail and destructive wind events are possible across the
Big Country and North-Central Texas into southern Oklahoma. A few
severe thunderstorms including a few tornadoes across parts of the
Mid-Mississippi Valley States this evening into tonight.
...TX/OK...
A broad/flat upper trough is present today over the western states,
with a ridge axis across the MS Valley. A diffuse surface dryline
is analyzed over west TX, and will mix eastward through the
afternoon and provide the focus for intense thunderstorm development
later today.
Full sunshine will lead to dry-adiabatic lapse rates throughout most
of the low/mid troposphere today near the dryline. High-based
storms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon from near Wichita
Falls southward to west of San Angelo, where high CAPE values and
sufficient flow will support supercells storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds. These storms will persist through much of
the evening and spread eastward. Richer low-level moisture profiles
and strengthening low-level winds during the evening will maintain
the wind/hail risk while also increasing the potential for a tornado
or two, although early outflow dominance may complicate storm modes.
...IA/MO/IL...
a small cluster of strong-severe storms is ongoing this morning over
northeast MO. The air mass ahead of this activity is relatively
cloudy and only marginally unstable, leading to considerable
uncertainty regarding the longevity of the severe risk. A few 12z
CAM solutions do show convective maintenance through much of the
afternoon, so will maintain the SLGT risk into central IL for this
scenario.
Farther north and west, southeasterly low-level winds will continue
to transport an increasingly moist airmass into parts of northern MO
and southern IA. Partial afternoon heating is expected to lead to
moderate CAPE and the development of isolated thunderstorms. The
storms that form will track eastward through the late afternoon and
evening across southern IA/northern MO and eventually into western
IL. Confidence is low regarding the location and timing of
development, so have opted to make few changes to the ongoing SLGT
risk. However, there is relatively high conditional potential for
supercell storm structures capable of large hail and isolated
tornadoes for those storms that can develop.
..Hart/Jewell.. 05/06/2023
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